The Reshaping of the Terrorist and Extremist Landscape in a Post Pandemic World

About this narrative

In East Africa, Al-Shabaab disseminated various COVID-19 conspiracy theories during 2020 and 2021, including that the virus transmission is caused by the presence of military troops from Christian majority nations and was spread by “Crusaders” who had invaded Somalia.¹ The group also claimed that the disease was an American, European, and Chinese problem: not an African one.² Following the lead of European regulators as they questioned the safety of the AstraZeneca vaccine in 2021, Al-Shabaab advised Muslims to instead medications found in the Qur’an such as “black seed and honey,”and to “not trust the disbelievers to benefit you in any way,” when directly referring to the WHO and UNICEF.³ Another notable narrative spread by VEOs was that claim that COVID-19 was manufactured in Western countries – or deliberately spread – to further a eugenics-based elimination of black people.³ In this framing, the virus became described as a weapon of intentional destruction.

Conspiracy theories in the Balkans were strongly associated with radical right groups, intensified online disinformation campaigns, and the QAnon movement. In all countries studied, there was evidence of both a rise over 2020 and 2021 in the number of individuals who supported radical right extremist narratives (for instance, anti-immigration, anti-LGBT+, and anti-abortion narratives), and the development of radical right groups that claimed, for example, that they were ‘purifiers of society’ and out to correct governments. Disinformation on COVID-19 included speculation that the virus and vaccines were weapons and perhaps even created by the American army or developed by the Chinese.⁴ Many variations of these forms of narratives were identified in Balkan countries. The following examples demonstrate how the radical right and conspiracy theorists shifted their focus to spread narratives about the pandemic and undermine governments regionally. Through these, COVID-19 became a “lie” (Croatia);⁵ a virus that did not exist but was invented (QAnon Bosnia-Herzegovina);⁶ and a virus spread by 5G. Other misinformation contended that COVID-19 originated from a laboratory in Wuhan (Albania)⁷ or in US labs (Moldova).⁸ Misinformation about Bill Gates along with radical right diatribes against globalism often featured in conspiracies behind the pandemic (in North Macedonia, Moldova, and Bulgaria).⁹ Racism – a hallmark of the radical right – also figured in these narratives as Sinti and Roma minority communities became supposed “hotbeds of infections”, and COVID-19 became a biological weapon designed to control the world population (Bulgaria).¹⁰

Anti-vaccination messaging was also prominent, particularly in the Balkans and Southeast Asia. In the Balkans, radical right extremist groups and individual conspiracy theorists shifted from COVID-19 denialism in the early stages of the pandemic to subsequently proliferate sentiments such as that “the vaccine is a poison…still in the testing phase” or that “vaccination is a type of organized genocide” (Croatia).¹¹ Additional dis- and misinformation about the vaccines circulated widely, playing on religious and ideological beliefs across the region. In Bulgaria, for example, there were several types of conspiracy theories circulating in 2021, including: “COVID-19 is a man-made virus spread by global movements, transnational corporations, aliens or the Illuminati;” “the virus is real but not as deadly, which make measures unnecessary;” and that “Bill Gates [and] 5G…[are] efforts to control the world population” through COVID-19 vaccines.¹²

In Southeast Asia, vaccines – particularly those developed in China such as Sinovac – were also the subject of disinformation narratives. Common narratives spread across diverse ideologically motivated groups, despite occupying very different spaces on the extremist spectrum. In 2020, violent extremist networks claimed Chinese-manufactured vaccines were part of a plot by China to incapacitate local populations and occupy the region, narratives reflective of anti-Chinese prejudices held by many ideologically motivated VEOs in the region.¹³ Other conspiracy theories in the area also demonstrated this prejudice. Another VE-linked narrative explained SARS-CoV-2 as a bioweapon deployed by China – perhaps spread via Chinese migrant workers.¹⁴ Such racist and nativist narratives were primarily found in Indonesia but were also present in Malaysia and the Philippines. Anti-Chinese conspiracy narratives functioned as a unifying commonality between different extremist groups and their followers (including Dash-affiliates and the Islamic Defenders Front). As the pandemic became entrenched and there were no indications of it abating, regional extremist groups also began re-posting and adapting COVID-19 mis- and disinformation from US and Western sources, though their use of such messaging gradually decreased over 2021.¹⁵

The research team did not locate specific conspiracy theory narratives in extremist communications in West Africa beyond generalized global narratives on COVID-19. Given that local VEOs such as Boko Haram have previously rejected vaccines (such as the polio vaccine) and attacked vaccine distributors, it was expected that VEOs in West Africa would campaign against the COVID-19 vaccine. However, this did not happen. While groups operating elsewhere in Africa, such as Al-Shabaab, have released statements rejecting the AstraZeneca vaccine, their counterparts in the Sahel and the Lake Chad region did not issue any public statements regarding the vaccine. This may be partly a result of the reality of lower vaccine distribution compared to many other countries. Still, VEOs in this region did disseminate generic mis- and disinformation about COVID-19, even without novel adaptations, which may have contributed to non-compliance with public health measures across general populations.¹⁶

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